Ballot Order Effects Under Compulsory Voting*
نویسندگان
چکیده
Australia was one of the first countries to introduce random ballot ordering, and is one of the few democracies to make voting compulsory. Using all federal election results since the introduction of random ballot ordering in 1984, we estimate the magnitude and correlates of the ballot position effect in Australia. We find that being placed first on the ballot increases a candidate’s voteshare by about 1 percentage point, or 28 percent of the voteshare received by the typical candidate. Strikingly, however, we find that the ballot order effect exists only for male candidates, who gain 1.4 percentage points when they head the ballot. By contrast, women gain no advantage from topping the ballot paper. Our estimated effects are politically important, since 1 in 10 races are decided by margins of less than 1.4 percentage points. We find no evidence that the ballot order effect has risen or fallen over time. In percentage point terms, the ballot order effect appears to be similar for major party, minor party and independent candidates. Across electorates, the ballot order effect is larger where fluency in English is lower. JEL Codes: D72
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تاریخ انتشار 2006